UK Economy Flat in July Ahead of Key Central Bank Meetings
There was no expansion for the UK economy in July seeing it flatlined at 0%. After positive signs in Q2 for the UK economy, expectations where that the second half […]
ONS Delay Japan Inflation Falls Powell Speech in Focus
What was supposed to be a morning of UK retail sales, will now take place on the 5th of September. This was announced two days ago, as The Office for […]
Sterling Rises on BoE Split Decision as Tariff Tensions Escalate
It did not come to anyone surprise that Bank of England did lower its interest rate by a quarter of a percent yesterday. Now sitting at a base rate of […]
Pound Strengthens as EU-US Trade Deal Progresses and ECB Decision Looms
Pound-Euro has been helped further over the past 24 hours as details of a pending trade deal between the U.S & Europe is getting closer to being agreed. Reports suggest […]
Surprise UK Inflation Spike Adds Pressure to Bank of England
UK Inflation has yet again surprised markets this morning, rising to 3.6% as economic troubles continue. This unexpected rise in inflation has now given The Bank of England a headache […]
UK GDP Contracts Again: Pressure Mounts on BoE as Growth Falters
We noticed a second consecutive contraction for economic growth in the UK this morning. After a sharp fall back in April of -0.3%, forecast suggested an uplift of 0.1% in […]
Bank of England Holds Rates as Economic Pressures Mount
The Bank of England held interest rates steady at 4.25% during its policy meeting yesterday but signalled a growing appetite for easing in the near term. Notably, three members of […]
GBP Slides as UK Labour Market Weakens and Recession Fears Grow
Tuesday morning started off in red for GBP against both EUR and USD, after average earnings and unemployment figures were released. An indication in the wrong direction for both indices, […]
Surprise Inflation Spike Shakes UK Rate Cut Hopes as Sterling Hits 3-Year High
Inflation has surprisingly climbed higher than initial forecasts, with an increase in household bills being the main contribution to inflation rising to 3.5%. It’s also notably the highest level of […]
Sterling Gains Ground Amid UK-EU Talks
Sterling enjoyed improved performance over the last week, particularly against the Euro, driven largely by speculation surrounding ongoing UK-EU negotiations. Markets appear optimistic ahead of key talks scheduled for Monday, with traders hoping for positive outcomes. However, it’s important to remain cautious; while optimism is running high, there’s a risk the outcome might fall short of market expectations. If talks disappoint, we could see Sterling give up some of its recent gains. Conversely, a positive surprise could push GBP/EUR rates firmly into the 1.19 area. Looking at economic data, Monday starts with Eurozone core inflation, expected to rise by 0.3% to reach 2.7% year-on-year. Given persistently high costs across Europe, a higher inflation print won’t come as a shock. However, it could influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) approach, possibly slowing down their planned interest rate cuts—potentially giving the Euro some short-term support. Later in the day, various Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak. However, without Fed Chair Jerome Powell participating, these speeches are unlikely to offer substantial forward guidance or spark significant market volatility. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to cut interest rates to 3.85%. Even though this cut is anticipated, it’s likely to put downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. Traders should therefore expect GBPAUD to open higher when London markets begin trading. Additionally, Canadian inflation data later in the day is forecasted lower at 1.6%, likely causing weakness in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and potentially creating trading opportunities in CAD pairs. Wednesday’s primary focus will be on UK inflation data, forecasted to rise to 3.6% year-on-year. A higher inflation reading would likely prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to pause any further immediate rate cuts, providing Sterling with some short-term strength. With no other significant data scheduled, Sterling pairs may see greater volatility based purely on this inflation release. Thursday is Flash PMI day, providing preliminary economic snapshots from the UK, Eurozone, and the U.S. Both the UK and Eurozone figures are expected to show slight improvement, while U.S. PMIs are forecasted lower across the board. Although these flash PMIs are essentially estimates, they’re generally accurate and can serve as important leading indicators for market sentiment. We may see some volatility, particularly in USD pairs, if U.S. PMIs confirm a weakening economic outlook. Finally, Friday concludes with UK retail sales data. Currently, no official forecast has been released, but given recent good weather conditions, it would not be surprising to see increased consumer spending across the UK. Strong retail figures could further bolster Sterling, closing the week on a positive note. As always, navigating currency markets in such volatile times requires careful planning. If you need any support or insights on managing your FX risk, please feel free to reach out—I’m here to help. GBP/EUR 1.1858 GBP/USD 1.3367 GBP/AED 4.9114GBP/AUD 2.0761 GBP/CHF 1.1137 GBP/CAD 1.8650GBP/NZD 2.2648 EUR/USD 1.1257 GBP/ZAR 24.0937